Kenneth Hurley, MBA's Personal Website

Meta Disaster or 5th time's a charm for VR/AR?

Sat, 18 Jun 2022 13:23:00 -0700

Introduction

In the category of more wasted investor money, I'm making a prediction once again that VR/AR is a losing bet in 2022 & 2023. Virtual Reality (VR) is a term used to define an immersive experience in a confined Head Mounted Display (HMD) where your vision is completely isolated from the real world. Augmented Reality (AR), is a blend of real-world images and computer imaging through the use of externally facing camera lenses blended with 3D generated content on internally facing displays. Some AR systems like AR Glasses project the 3D imaging directly onto the Glass lenses overlaying the real-world images your eyes see.

A little background on why I am giving my opinion on this is two-fold. META has switched focus to try and drive the "MetaVerse" via Occulus headsets and I've been in and out of...Read More

The Failure of Athos Wearable Technology.

Sat, 19 Dec 2015 15:37:23 -0800

I've been documenting my predictions over the last few years with what I believe is a complete waste of VC and Limited partners money in technology investments.

Athos has raised close to $50 million and it just goes to show that some VCs just don't know what they are doing.

The company sells a wearable technology that tracks your muscle electrical pulses to determine how much and how effective you are working particular muscles.

Well, that doesn't seem to be much of a mass market to me. I might be one of their target customers because I have been lifting weights for a long time, but I don't need something like this. The average consumer isn't going to need this either.

So maybe professional athletes, or extreme athletes? A very, very niche market.

The apparel that you have to use is like a slim wet suit directly next to the body (no under garments). Really? I want to push myself and sweat with a completely non-breathable set of "clothing"? Not likely.

Add to that to purchase get a full set (shirt and shorts) with two of the core units will cost you around $600.00. And with it actually "backordered" and not guarantees that it will ship by 12/25/2015, I would guess they've had very limited demand and have kept supplies low.

And since the suit needs to be next to your body, when you return it, the company basically has to burn it. With slim margins in the price of the suit, I would guess the company could make $100.00 on a full suit sold. But with the amount of returns that they would get, it would eat away at any potential of profit.

Again, dumb VC money, just being thrown away without doing any competent due diligence on the market and the viability of a product.

Who knows, the company might succeed by selling using the "greater fool" theory.

Until Next Time!

The Demise of Google Glass

Fri, 10 May 2013 15:42:54 -0700

This is one more prediction for 2013. Google Glass will be a failure. It's a nice nerdy/geeky thing, but really? It's a novelty item, but one that will die very quickly.

But KPCB has going to invest in apps for this? http://venturecompany.com/blog/2013/05/kpcb-culpa-tua

What has the venture community come too? Please just give me the money to light some cigars with. It will be faster and less expensive.

Are the limited partners really on board with this? What about the safety implications of Google Glass? I would think that limited partners could see this is not a very good business opportunity and a complete waste of an investment.

One more prediction for 2013, the complete and utter failure of Google Glass.

Until next time.

2013 Predictions

Fri, 12 Apr 2013 15:46:20 -0700

I've decided to start documenting my predictions, because when it comes to the technology, I seem to have a knack for it. Call it common sense, intuition or just a gut feeling, I seem to be able to get it right quite a bit.

Some past predictions:

The gaming industry will have a major shift away from retail titles into more digital titles (predicted circa, 2008). I first predicted within a year, but then realizing how things move I extended my forecast to 2 years.

I will now make another prediction about the new video game consoles coming out of Microsoft and Sony, DOA, yes "Dead On Arrival". Nintendo WiiU/3DS and other consoles are going the way to of the dinosaur. Yes there may be still some hardcore gamers that will buy the systems, but in general it won't be enough to support a profitable business. Nintendo will shift focus to strictly software and eventually get out of the hardware business (prediction: about 2015 or so).

The reasoning behind all this? Simple, time. People have less and less time to spend on video games. They have to sneak in time here and there. The younger generation is using portable devices, but they are multi-use. Parents hand their kids their iPhone or their iPad and have games & educational titles on it. This exposes the kids at an early age in using portable devices. Apple has a pretty good foothold on this market.

I predicted the slow adoption of Windows 7 and what I see as a complete failure of Windows 8 and the Microsoft PC business. I fully predicted that this wouldn't be a success. I don't think it will kill Microsoft, but it is going to reduce their total earnings. That coupled with the decline in XBOX 360 sales and the failure of "XBOX 720" will probably reduce their earnings by at least 30-40%. They will survive, because they have lots of cash in the bank and are entrenched in enterprise and server side software. But that will soon change also. I...Read More

Electronic Arts and Riccitiello

Mon, 18 Mar 2013 15:59:04 -0700

It's no secret that I've been vocal about what I see as a waste and just dumb decisions in executive leadership in the game industry. What I find very interesting about the really really bad decisions is that it was able to spill over into VC;s and game industry investors.

Bing Gordon, runs sFund that is mentioned here. http://venturecompany.com/blog/2013/03/kpcb-mea-culpa/ He also was the primary VC behind Zynga. LP's should be waking up and smelling the losses. But they will probably keep these guys in power and accept the millions more in losses. When will it stop?

Electronic Arts and Elevation partners is another prime example of how investors and Limited partners have been swindled out of hundreds of millions. I would guess that it's over a billion in losses total now.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-10784_3-9796120-7.html

How this cannot be "illegal" is beyond me. You start a VC firm, then go to work for a company that buys out one of the firms investments for an ungodly amount and personally benefit from it.

From the article:

"Not only may the deal strengthen EA, but Riccitiello will probably personally benefit from the deal. He remains an investor in the Elevation Partners fund, and could stand to make $4.9 million on the deal following the distribution of the profits to fund shareholders, according to a filing EA made with the Securities and Exchange Commission Thursday"

Like Georges from the venture company, I've been vocal about my dissatisfaction with the lack of good VC performance, especially when related to the game industry. The VC model and this model is broken. Now it happens for the 3rd time with respect to Electronic Arts. The fiasco of a launch of the Sims being...Read More

Agile or Waterfall? How about Both!

Fri, 08 Mar 2013 16:05:08 -0800

In the many years I've been doing development and managed many an engineer, I've been through both development processes.

I've never been very happy with either and always used a blend of both. Some companies have coined

the term "Nimble" or "Wet Agile".

This, in my opinion, is probably the best way to get a project completed close to on-time and on budget with getting your team as efficient as possible. It also bridges the gap of a Waterfall process with the ability of Agile to get a product that your customer wants.

There is a fantastic white paper on the subject available from:

http://www.commonplaces.com/sites/commonplaces.com/files/attachment/article/a_guide_to_planning_your_next_web_project.pdf

It's exactly what I like to do in terms of development process and managing that process.

What's nice about it, is that it fits well withing the Mobile/Web development process. Most of the time I see development that is a combination of web front ends, server backends used in conjunction with Mobile client applications.

Using the "Nimble" approach solves the issues to allow good processes and architecture to be in place across the entire software system.

How Kickstart is Killing Innovation

Fri, 25 Jan 2013 16:17:33 -0800

How Kickstarter is Killing Innovation

A better choice is Rockethub: http://www.rockethub.com/projects/14868

I used to like Kickstarter. I even blogged about it before. But I think it has declined into something that is bad for innovation. You see, like other projects, my Kickstarter project was declined. Now, you may be thinking, well it happens, maybe your project didn't fit the guidelines. That isn't the case. Here's the story:

I spent quite a few weeks putting together the pitch for my project. Followed all the guidelines. To be honest, I thought of their process as a contract. You follow the rules, etc, we will post your project, that simple and we get a percentage of what you collect.

Well it didn't turn out that way.

They basically say that the project doesn't fit into their "focus" and isn't a "best fit" for Kickstarter. Not that it violated any of their guidelines.

So now, Kickstarter has turned into basically a Venture Capitalist of sorts. A Kickstarter staff member gets to decide if he thinks your project is worthy. Only then can you have the project posted. Crazy isn't it?

This has really turned me off to Kickstarter and I won't be supporting any more projects on the site. You can call it sour grapes or whatever you want, but I don't think Kickstarter is or should be the authority on what is a good project. They are a platform to enable you to reach friends, followers, and possibly other interested people in your project. But they are afraid, very afraid. This is probably why they aren't going to be approving many crowd funding projects in the future.

http://venturebeat.com/2013/01/22/why-this-jilted-kickstarter-backer-decided-to-sue-why-he-was-right/

Also, now that I spent a good deal of time and effort to massage my proposal into their Kickstarter system, shouldn't I be able to charge Kickstarter for my effort? I'm not an attorney, but to me...Read More

How VC's, Angels and Kickstarter Can Get Along

Thu, 03 May 2012 09:29:15 -0700

When I was first introduced to Kickstarter (www.kickstarter.com), I was thinking that this type of funding would preclude VC's and Angels from being involved because of the nature of capital being raised. Kickstarter projects are donations and not investments in the company. There are rewards for your donation, but they are usually very small in comparison to your donation.

The way I see Kickstarter is that it is a good system for building jobs. Even if it is temporary employment for 3-12 months, it is indeed a good donation to make. How often do you make a donation to food banks, shelters, etc. only to have that money be used for 1 meal or something that doesn't last? But as an old Chinese proverb goes "Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime."

Kickstarter projects are usually funded by the donation of crowds, hence the term Crowdfunding. You would think that this cuts out VC's and Angel investors as they can't really make an investment into the idea unless the parties pull their idea after an Angel or VC expresses interest. But the new JOBS act does change that a little starting in 2013 with the ability to "make and investment" instead of "make a donation". There are plenty of hoops to jump through and it may not work as the projects on Kickstarter are usually composed of 1-5 team members.

I have recently gained a lot of respect for John Lilly the founder Mozilla and now partner at Greylock Partners http://www.greylock.com/teams/14-john-lilly as I tweeted him about his thoughts on the whole Kickstarter idea and how VCs (Venture Capitalists) and Angels were shut out of the system. To use VC speak, Kickstarter is an extremely "disruptive" technology, but not to the benefit of the venture community! Or so I thought. He replied back very shortly saying he actually personally...Read More

Crowd Funding

Mon, 30 Apr 2012 09:35:16 -0700

Crowd Funding looks like a great way to help out small businesses. Yes, it is a little like begging for change. But wouldn't you rather put $10.00 in the hands of a possible entrepreneur who would probably create jobs, then to hand it to a person on the street, who may or may not use it for the greater good?

Growthink has a great presentation on this type of funding here: http://goo.gl/Mungg Be forewarned, he's will try to sell you something about 3/4 of the way through his presentation, but it might be worth it if you are an information junkie like I am. As he points out Crowd funding is by far the best idea in funding that has come along in 50 years. Imagine if Congress would let you take a tax deduction for donating money like this. It could reinvigorate the economy even further. But alas, Congress has different plans and in my opinion is clueless to the new era of funding.

Congress has a proposal called the CROWDFUND act, and is part of the Entrepreneur Access to Capital Act. They are trying to legislate the crowd funding and this will be effective in January of 2013. This part of the JOBS act is really useless for what Crowd Funding is. Running a small public company in the past, I could raise $1 million a year. But in general, I could only have 35 unaccredited investors and unlimited accredited investors. See http://www.sec.gov/answers/rule504.htm for a definition of accredited vs. unaccredited. OK, so the CROWDFUND act now allows 2,000 unaccredited investors, but limits the amount they may invest as a percentage of their net worth or income.

Congress is so out of touch, it blows me away. Most of the companies/individuals seeking funding don't have the resources to be able to satisfy the regulations imposed upon them for this. The regulations help in a very small way, as now companies that want to do raise money this way, can now offer returns on...Read More

Better Debugging Techniques

Wed, 18 Apr 2012 09:40:26 -0700

Recently I was working on a problem for someone that involved a graphics glitch. It involved only one chipset on mobile OpengGLES. The engineers had been looking at this for almost two weeks and still did not have a solution. They were certain it was a driver bug. From my experience, about 1/2 the time this doesn't turn out to be the case.

One of my techniques for efficient debugging is to actually use a debugger. When I arrived and started working with the team to try and solve the issue, they had been what I call "poking" at the code. What this means is placing printfs in the code, stripping out pieces the code, writing alternative ways to render, etc.

In fact, they had one other idea that they wanted to try, which was to write some code to ping pong between textures because they had a suspicion it was a problem with glClear not being called.

I asked if I could first identify the problem exactly, which usually takes me a few hours at most (if it's a hard bug). There were a couple of bugs that did take me a week to find, but those usually took 24 or more hours to reproduce. I explained that just because they are seeing it in only one game and only one hardware chipset, it can still rear its ugly head somewhere down the road. They didn't care they just wanted a hack for now. I've seen it time and time again, if you don't understand the bug and just hack around it, you create a whole can of other beetles for yourself. I would have said worms, but beetles are bugs.

It was clear that I wasn't a good fit for this group. They didn't need me, what they needed was a coder that would just be a robot and just code up hacks until they found a solution. Not my cup of tea!

Upon my exiting they asked me for feedback on what they were doing. I said it would be nice to have a debugger and they said, "Why? Do you need to look at the stack or something?" OK, I thought, I guess I need to write a blog entry about this.

Only...Read More